BTI: Tajikistan Country Report

The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index (BTI) 2026 Tajikistan Country Report states that Tajikistan is a consolidated authoritarian state in which President Emomali Rahmon, his family and a small circle of confidants have monopolised political power and control over major economic enterprises. The report states that the 2025 parliamentary elections further cemented the dominance of the president and the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDPT), and that preparations for a dynastic transfer to his eldest son Rustam Emomali (born 1987, appointed chairman of the upper house in 2020) are already underway. It states that in 2024 Human Rights Watch reported Tajikistan’s human rights record “continues to deteriorate amid an increased crackdown on freedom of expression and the political opposition, as well as the targeting of independent lawyers, journalists and family members of opposition activists abroad.” The report states the Pomiri community has faced systematic repression: in 2022 a military operation in Gorno-Badakhshan resulted in more than 80 civilian deaths and 200 arrests. It states that in 2024 Tajik IS-K sympathisers carried out attacks in Kerman and Moscow causing over 250 fatalities. The report notes remittances account for up to 45 percent of GDP, making Tajikistan one of the most remittance-dependent economies in the world, and that external debt has been reduced by half while poverty fell from 83 percent in 1999 to 21 percent in 2023. Rahmon was re-elected in 2020 with 93 percent of the vote; the OSCE cancelled its March 2025 election observation mission. In June 2024, Democratic Party chairman Saidja’far Usmonzoda was arrested after filing a complaint. The IRPT was banned and declared a terrorist organisation in 2015.